May 30, 2011

I hope everyone is having a wonderful long Memorial Day holiday.

Memorial Day, originally called Decoration Day, is a day of remembrance for those who have died in our nation’s service. Too many of us who are beneficiaries forget those of those who have given the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom.  Please take a few moments today and give thanks.

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Watching last week’s trading mania with LinkedIn’s IPO where the price virtually doubled on the first day reminded me of the go-go end of the tech bubble (1999-2000). While Linkedin’s gain was impressive, it pales in comparison to the greatest first day gainers of the past. I thought it would be interesting to look at what happened to the 10 biggest first day percentage increase non-ADR IPO’s in our history.

The companies with the biggest first-day percentage stock price increases

1.    Va Linux (12/09/99) 698%

a.    IPO valuation peak =~$10b – Company is currently known as Geeknet, Inc. with a valuation =~$182M  ***

2.    Globe.com (11/13/98) 606%

a.    IPO valuation peak = ~$9b – Bankrupt  ***

3.    Foundry Networks (9/28/99) 525%

a.    IPO valuation peak = ~$9b – Acquired by Brocade in 2008 for $2.6B ***

4.    Webmethods (2/11/00) 508%

a.    IPO valuation peak = ~$8b – Acquired by Software AG in 2007 for $546 million***

5.    Free Markets (12/10/99) 483%

a.    IPO valuation peak = ~$8b – Acquired by Ariba in 1/04 for $493 million  ***

6.    Cobalt Networks (11/05/99) 482%

a.    IPO valuation peak =~$16b – 9/2000, Sun Microsystems acquired Cobalt for $2b in stock. In December 2003, Sun retired its entire Cobalt product line  ***

7.    MarketWatch.com (1/15/99) 474%

a.    IPO valuation peak =~$2b – Acquired 1/2005 for $530M. ***

8.    Akamai Technologies (10/29/99) 458%

a.    IPO valuation peak =~$16b – Still in existence, today’s valuation = ~ $6.3b

9.    Cacheflow (11/19/99) 427%

a.    IPO valuation peak = $7b – Still in existence as Blue Coat systems, today’s valuation    = ~$975M ***

10. Sycamore Networks (10/22/99) 386%.

a.    IPO valuation peak =~$16b – Still in existence today’s valuation = $660M

*** IPO valuation peaks are estimates

Where Linkedin will fall in the history books is anyone’s guess but from the above data it seems the hottest IPO’s rarely turn out to be great long term investments.

May 23, 2011

I held off on posting this earlier because it could have been so irrelevant if we actually did encounter the end of the world as predicted last Saturday. I can proudly say I have survived Y2K and May 21, 2011.   :-)

For those of you looking ahead to either a vacation or retirement and possibly looking abroad,  International Living magazine released their annual Quality of Life index where they rank countries and determine the best places to live.  To produce their Index they consider nine categories: Cost of Living, Culture and Leisure, Economy, Environment, Freedom, Health, Infrastructure, Safety and Risk, and Climate. This involves a lot of number crunching from “official” sources, including government websites, the World Health Organization, and The Economist, to name but a few. But they also take into account what editors from all over the world have to say.

Where will you find the world’s best quality of life? Going by numbers alone, the winner is clear: the United States.

Statistics don’t tell the whole story, of course. But we’ll start by letting the numbers have their say. The U.S. has the biggest economy in the world and—when compared to the 191 other countries in our survey, earns the highest marks for infrastructure. It scores respectably across the rest of our nine categories as well—cost of living, culture, environment, freedom, health, and safety. And thus, on a strictly statistical basis, the U.S. is hard to beat. A clear, if uninspiring, winner.

After all, eleven months of the year, we consider where you can live well on the cheap, pay less tax, enjoy better weather and take advantage of emerging markets. Where you can best escape, retire, start over, take off on a grand adventure…

On a macro level, the numbers tell their story. The U.S. has more paved roads than anywhere else, more airports and a lot of cell phones, good Internet access. It’s got a huge economy, the world’s biggest (though not necessarily the best), and it’s got tens of thousands of doctors and hospitals (if you can afford them). The numbers say: The United States has a lot going for it.

But statistics don’t always reflect the reality in communities on the ground. The truth is: In dozens of other countries, ranked lower in the final count than the U.S., you can enjoy a life of equal quality — with the same levels of comfort — at a much lower cost.

Admittedly, outside the States you may not get pizza delivered at all hours or find Wi-Fi in every café. But thousands of satisfied expats are living proof that, in return for sacrificing a little convenience, you can enjoy a truly healthy, happy and more affordable life overseas.

So yes, the size of an economy and the efficiency of a country’s infrastructure tell you a certain amount about what it’s like to live there. But how much will the GNP or the number of cell phones per capita affect your quality of life as a North American should you adopt another country as your home? Well, it depends.

Say, for example, you land in the colonial city of Cuenca, Ecuador, with the idea that you’ll stay and live on an income of $2,000 a month. Well in that case, your quality of life will be second to none. Because with that kind of bankroll in Ecuador, where the cost of living is quite low, you could afford to access very good health care, have as many cell phones as you like, eat out twice a day, employ a maid…and still have plenty leftover.

The point is, it’s hard to put a simple number on the “quality” in quality of life. If we were to give less weight to the economy and infrastructure categories in our survey, the final rankings would be very different. And the countries we write about most often would come out much closer to the top.

Still, it can be useful to step back and see how each nation fares relative to others when we do consider these categories.  To come out ahead, a country must be an all-around good pick, not just a standout in one area or two. And that explains why the top finishers are developed nations like the U.S. and the rest of our top 10 — New Zealand, Malta, France, Monaco, Belgium, Japan, United Kingdom, Austria, and Germany.

None is among the most affordable nations on the planet. But they all offer other benefits. These nations are home to plenty of expats who are thrilled with life in their chosen havens and share their experiences below.

Originally from Indiana, Jennifer Tucker found her perfect work-life balance in New Zealand. Three generations of the Mulcare family discovered something to love about life in the French Pyrenees. Michelle Nott enjoys the real perks of life in Belgium (see below for all their stories).

Numbers are by their nature about quantity; they give an outline, but they don’t paint the picture. To get a more accurate sense for the rich tapestry of life around the world, you need to consider the reality on the ground.

Take Belarus, for example. Formerly a part of the Soviet Union, it has more doctors and hospital beds per person than anywhere else in the world, and so its health care score is pretty respectable. But that doesn’t mean it has the best health care. Do a little digging and you find out that while it had more than its share of medical colleges before the fall of the Berlin Wall—and still, today, many doctors—it’s nearly impossible to get specialized health care there.

By contrast, in Mexico, which earns the same score in the health category as Belarus, you have access to U.S.- and European-trained doctors and ultra-modern medical facilities. Many Mexican doctors speak excellent English, and their services cost less than half what you’d pay in the States.

Mexico scores well in other categories, too. It comes fourth in climate and 10th in culture— ahead of many developed countries including the U.S. Throw in a good score in cost of living and it’s obvious why it’s home to more expats than any other country in the world.

Look at a combination of categories and you’ll find some other attractive options. Zimbabwe and Malta tie for first place in climate. But they’re not cheap. When you take into account cost of living, then affordable Ecuador— which came in a close eighth in the climate category—starts to look very appealing.

Iceland, Switzerland and Costa Rica top our environment category. This year we ranked countries according to Yale University’s Environmental Performance Index. This ranks countries across 25 performance indicators, water quality, policy initiatives, biodiversity, air pollution, the effect of environmental factors on human health, and more. The U.S. didn’t do so well, coming in at only 61st.

Dozens of countries outperformed it, many of which are established or emerging retirement havens. Ranked 10th in environment, it’s no surprise Colombia is an emerging expat destination. It also scores well in the climate category, coming 20th, and it’s a really affordable option in terms of real estate and cost of living, too.

Now our Quality of Life Index can’t tell you where the best place is to buy beachfront or convert an old colonial into a guesthouse. What it can tell you is that with a warm, dry Mediterranean climate, low crime rates, good medical facilities and English-speaking population, Malta’s a good place to start looking.

It can tell you that New Zealand, this year’s runner-up, is a First World retirement haven. It can show you that Uruguay, 22nd this year, earns solid marks in infrastructure and health (which is partly why more and more wannabe expats consider it an attractive option). So where will you find your best quality of life? There is no answer. At least, no generic answer. It depends on what’s most important to you.

What’s Life Like There?
Not only did we crunch the numbers for this year’s Quality of Life Index, we also spoke to readers all over the world about life in their adopted homes. We asked them what makes life so good there…maybe it’s excellent health care, or safety and security. Perhaps it’s the low cost of living, a great scene and wonderful food.

#1 United States

#2 New Zealand

#3 Malta

#4 France

#5 Monaco

#6 Belgium

#7 Japan

#8 Germany

#9 Italy

#10 Austria

If you would like to see how the rest of the countries of the world fared check out the full article here

http://internationalliving.com/2010/12/quality-of-life-2011/

May 16, 2011

It’s becoming a familiar situation of late: a person may be forced to leave the workforce shy of her 65th birthday and Medicare eligibility. At which point she has to make a decision about how to tide her over until she is eligible. Whether you’re four months away from Medicare eligibility — or even four years — filling the health care gap before Medicare eligibility is neither easy nor cheap. The advent of state health exchanges under health reform should ease the process, but those won’t be up and running until 2014. In the meantime, if you are laid off or experience some other job loss prior to your 65th birthday, there are several techniques you can use to simplify your search for a plan, and to ease the cost burden.

Retiree medical insurance. Most workers won’t receive retiree health benefits from their former employer. Only 28 percent of large firms with 200 or more workers offered retiree health insurance in 2010, down from 66 percent in 1988, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey of employers. And just 3 percent of small firms with between three and 199 workers have health plans for retirees. Companies can generally increase out-of-pocket costs or even revoke retiree health benefits at any time. To encourage employers to maintain their healthcare coverage for early retirees, the healthcare reform bill promised to reimburse employers for high healthcare costs for retirees age 55 and older who are not yet eligible for Medicare. So far, more than 5,000 employers have signed up for the Early Retiree Reinsurance Program and collected $535 million from the federal government to subsidize retiree healthcare costs. Retiree health plans can also be expensive for individuals, depending on whether your former employer subsidizes your coverage. A Towers Watson survey of 552 primarily Fortune 1000 companies found that retirees under age 65 pay an average of $633 per month for individual coverage and $1,633 monthly for family coverage.

COBRA coverage. You can buy back into the group health insurance plan offered by your former employer using COBRA continuation coverage, typically for up to 18 months if your company had at least 20 employees. For example, if your company offers you COBRA when you get to be 63 1/2, then you could use COBRA for 18 months and then go right into Medicare. But COBRA coverage, while guaranteed, could put a significant strain on your retirement budget; it is expensive and it’s time-limited. You may be required to pay the entire cost of the health insurance premiums out-of-pocket, including any amount the company pays for active employees plus a 2 percent administrative fee. And if your former company closes or goes bankrupt, you will lose your COBRA coverage.

Other forms of group coverage. If your spouse is still working, you may be able to get health insurance through his or her employer. You will generally need to request enrollment within 30 days of losing eligibility for your previous health plan. Additionally, a lot of professional associations and societies and some churches have group coverage, which in most cases will be less expensive than individual coverage.

Individual insurance. Shop around carefully when selecting an individual insurance policy. Price points to consider include premiums, deductibles, co-pays, coinsurance, the annual limit you have to pay out-of-pocket before insurance covers everything, and the record of annual premium increases. But the price of a policy shouldn’t be the only determining factor. Look at your family’s health history and be certain you are buying a plan that is going to give you the benefits you need when you are diagnosed. Examine whether your preferred doctors are in-network and whether preapproval is needed for procedures. Check with the state insurance regulatory agency to see what complaints exist against that insurance company and go online and see what other people using it have to say. You can compare a variety of insurance options in your area at healthcare.gov.

When looking for a plan on the open market, it’s a good idea to consult a few different websites, as well as insurance brokers in your city. You can get free quotes from a number of websites, including eHealthinsurance.com and HealthInsuranceProviders.com. A word of caution: if you see a website advertising health plans for lower prices than its competitors take the claim with a grain of salt. Premium rates are governed by state departments of insurance, so you’ll get the same price from every broker you consult.

High risk pools and pre-existing condition plans. Many states have high-risk pool programs that help people with medical problems get health insurance. If you have been uninsured for six months, have a pre-existing condition, and have been denied coverage because of a health condition, you may be able to get health insurance through a pre-existing condition insurance plan. PCIPs were created by the healthcare reform bill to make health coverage available to individuals who have been denied health insurance by private insurance companies. Every state is required by law to have a PCIP. If you live in one of the 23 states where the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services runs the program, the monthly premium for a 50-year-old enrollee ranges from $267 to $605, depending on your state of residence and the plan options you choose. But it’s generally not a good idea to voluntarily go without coverage for half a year in order to qualify.

Part-time job. If you are still able and willing to work in retirement, some companies provide health benefits to part-time employees. Starbucks, for example, offers health benefits to part-time employees who work a minimum of 240 hours in each calendar quarter, or about 20 hours a week. Find out the requirements to qualify for the health plan and make sure you stay ahead of the cutoff. This is viable option, especially if you don’t think you can get individual health insurance because of your health status.

Exchanges coming in 2014. As mentioned at the beginning of this post, people who retire before age 65 will be able to purchase health insurance through insurance exchanges beginning in 2014, with tax credits for those with low and moderate incomes. For someone looking to bridge the gap between early retirement (forced or otherwise) and Medicare eligibility, on July 1, 2012 you could take COBRA for a year and a half and then be able to purchase health insurance through the exchanges in 2014. The risk is that the health reform law could be changed before exchanges become operational and then you won’t have a guaranteed way to buy health insurance. 

May 9, 2011

Ok, I am calling a top here. Well, maybe not the exact top but we’re close.

No, it’s not because of the potential disastrous economic effects of the Fukushima tragedy, the three wars we are waging, excessive money printing, over domestic 10% unemployment, a number of European countries on the brink of bankruptcy, a double dip in housing, overly rich stock multiples or I even because my lucky Magic 8-ball warned me, but rather because within the past two weeks the number of calls/emails I have received has escalated to a frenzy. What does that have anything to do with a top in the stock market you ask? It appears as if the FED money printing fueled rise in risky assets has been wildly successful in drawing the little guy back into the market.  Yup, it seems they are afraid they are missing out and they need to get back in, NOW.  Sadly, it’s some of the same people who were reacting with deer-in-the-headlights look during the 2008 crisis are now wanting to jump back in with both feet ignoring the enormous headwinds we face. The herd mentality always has been and always will continue to be a great indicator that a top is near. It was back in 1999 (internet stocks), in 2007 (housing) and if I am right, another one here in 2011 (commodities).

In addition to all the obstacles already mentioned we are now into the negative season for stocks.  Yes, there is a strong seasonality trend with stock prices and those who followed the “sell in May and go away” bromide have been rewarded handsomely.  The “sell in May” strategy was first noted in 1986 by the Stock Trader’s Almanac, which found that $10,000 invested in the Dow Average from May 1 through Oct. 31 since 1950 left investors with a loss of $1,522. A $10,000 investment in the U.S. benchmark from Nov. 1 to April 30 led to a gain of about $88,000.  The data has been updated to look at more recent times and as you can see below, the argument is still strong but not quite as compelling.

While there are no guarantees, a historical probability of an 80% chance we are in a period of flat to down stock prices based upon seasonality trends alone makes me cautious, combined with the other hurdles we face, makes me fearful.   Now is not the time to doubling down, in fact in my mind, just the opposite. There will always be the chance to get on the next bull train so consider the wisdom of Warren Buffett who said “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

May 2, 2011

And here I have been pounding on the table that our Government’s printing of money is the cause of the recent spike in inflation.  Apparently there may be another villain, who, up until now has deftly avoided the finger pointing (it’s not like they need any more bad press). Without a doubt, GoldmanSachs (and the rest of the banking cartel) has rightly taken at least a partial hit for almost all of our recent economic malaise in one form or another so it is only fitting they have some culpability in this too. The article below is about ½ of  Frederick Kaufman’s excellent article recently posted at foreignpolicy.com. This is one of those great topics you most likely won’t find in the mainstream media outlets and definitely a good read. After reading this, there should be no question in anyone’s mind why I have been promoting a stocked pantry and having your own garden.

How Goldman Sachs Created the Food Crisis - BY FREDERICK KAUFMAN | APRIL 27, 2011

Don’t blame American appetites, rising oil prices, or genetically modified crops for rising food prices. Wall Street’s at fault for the spiraling cost of food.

Bankers recognized a good system when they saw it, and dozens of speculative non-physical hedgers followed Goldman’s lead and joined the commodities index game, including Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Pimco, JP Morgan Chase, AIG, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers, to name but a few purveyors of commodity index funds. The scene had been set for food inflation that would eventually catch unaware some of the largest milling, processing, and retailing corporations in the United States, and send shockwaves throughout the world.

The money tells the story. Since the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, there has been a 50-fold increase in dollars invested in commodity index funds. To put the phenomenon in real terms: In 2003, the commodities futures market still totaled a sleepy $13 billion. But when the global financial crisis sent investors running scared in early 2008, and as dollars, pounds, and euros evaded investor confidence, commodities — including food — seemed like the last, best place for hedge, pension, and sovereign wealth funds to park their cash. “You had people who had no clue what commodities were all about suddenly buying commodities,” an analyst from the United States Department of Agriculture told me. In the first 55 days of 2008, speculators poured $55 billion into commodity markets, and by July, $318 billion was roiling the markets. Food inflation has remained steady since.

The money flowed, and the banks were ready with a sparkling new casino of food derivatives. Spearheaded by oil and gas prices (the dominant commodities of the index funds) the new investment products ignited the markets of all the other indexed commodities, which led to a problem familiar to those versed in the history of tulips, dot-coms, and cheap real estate: a food bubble. Hard red spring wheat, which usually trades in the $4 to $6 dollar range per 60-pound bushel, broke all previous records as the futures contract climbed into the teens and kept on going until it topped $25. And so, from 2005 to 2008, the worldwide price of food rose 80 percent – and has kept rising. “It’s unprecedented how much investment capital we’ve seen in commodity markets,” Kendell Keith, president of the National Grain and Feed Association, told me. “There’s no question there’s been speculation.” In a recently published briefing note, Olivier De Schutter, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, concluded that in 2008 “a significant portion of the price spike was due to the emergence of a speculative bubble.”

What was happening to the grain markets was not the result of “speculation” in the traditional sense of buying low and selling high. Today, along with the cumulative index, the Standard & Poors GSCI provides 219 distinct index “tickers,” so investors can boot up their Bloomberg system and bet on everything from palladium to soybean oil, biofuels to feeder cattle. But the boom in new speculative opportunities in global grain, edible oil, and livestock markets has created a vicious cycle. The more the price of food commodities increases, the more money pours into the sector, and the higher prices rise. Indeed, from 2003 to 2008, the volume of index fund speculation increased by 1,900 percent. “What we are experiencing is a demand shock coming from a new category of participant in the commodities futures markets,” hedge fund Michael Masters testified before Congress in the midst of the 2008 food crisis.

The result of Wall Street’s venture into grain and feed and livestock has been a shock to the global food production and delivery system. Not only does the world’s food supply have to contend with constricted supply and increased demand for real grain, but investment bankers have engineered an artificial upward pull on the price of grain futures. The result: Imaginary wheat dominates the price of real wheat, as speculators (traditionally one-fifth of the market) now outnumber bona-fide hedgers four-to-one.

Today, bankers and traders sit at the top of the food chain — the carnivores of the system, devouring everyone and everything below. Near the bottom toils the farmer. For him, the rising price of grain should have been a windfall, but speculation has also created spikes in everything the farmer must buy to grow his grain — from seed to fertilizer to diesel fuel. At the very bottom lies the consumer. The average American, who spends roughly 8 to 12 percent of her weekly paycheck on food, did not immediately feel the crunch of rising costs. But for the roughly 2-billion people across the world who spend more than 50 percent of their income on food, the effects have been staggering: 250 million people joined the ranks of the hungry in 2008, bringing the total of the world’s “food insecure” to a peak of 1 billion – a number never seen before.

What’s the solution? The last time I visited the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, I asked a handful of wheat brokers what would happen if the U.S. government simply outlawed long-only trading in food commodities for investment banks. Their reaction: laughter. One phone call to a bona-fide hedger like Cargill or Archer Daniels Midland and one secret swap of assets, and a bank’s stake in the futures market is indistinguishable from that of an international wheat buyer. What if the government outlawed all long-only derivative products, I asked? Once again, laughter. Problem solved with another phone call, this time to a trading office in London or Hong Kong; the new food derivative markets have reached supranational proportions, beyond the reach of sovereign law.

Volatility in the food markets has also trashed what might have been a great opportunity for global cooperation. The higher the cost of corn, soy, rice, and wheat, the more the grain producing-nations of the world should cooperate in order to ensure that panicked (and generally poorer) grain-importing nations do not spark ever more dramatic contagions of food inflation and political upheaval. Instead, nervous countries have responded instead with me-first policies, from export bans to grain hoarding to neo-mercantilist land grabs in Africa. And efforts by concerned activists or international agencies to curb grain speculation have gone nowhere. All the while, the index funds continue to prosper, the bankers pocket the profits, and the world’s poor teeter on the brink of starvation.

To read the rest of the story go to http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/27/how_goldman_sachs_created_the_food_crisis?