Currencies

The Art of Knife Catching

Was talking to a great friend the other day and they asked if they should buy bitcoin. I said before you do let’s play a game. I will get on the roof, with you on the ground and I will throw some knives to you. Depending upon how many you catch will determine how much you buy. She laughed and got my point. I have nothing against bitcoin, in fact almost any vehicle is on the table as an investment but any purchase comes with a major condition, only buy if its price is rising. Let’s take a look at the bitcoin chart to see why I don’t believe now is the time to be acquiring this cryptocurrency.

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Long-term readers should easily recognize the ominous parabolic arc pattern. Parabolic Arc chart patterns are generated when steep rise in prices are caused by irrational buying and intense speculation. Parabolic Arcs are fairly rare but they are reliable that when they finally end, the result will be a steep and swift decline. The pattern typically terminates its uptrend and reverses direction upon a price break below the arc. If you are lucky enough to get in early, they are a way to immense riches … or devastation if you don’t have an investment plan (buy and hold)

As you can see after bitcoin broke the arc, it continued to fall, making lower highs and in the process forming a descending triangle pattern. These are typically continuation patterns, meaning there is a higher probability the break of the pattern will be in the direction of the prior trend (lower).  In this case, the break of the pattern that occurred 4 weeks ago points to a target in the area of $2900.  If that doesn’t hold, look out below as support doesn’t really show up until you get to $1000.

Because this is a logarithmic chart, it hides the magnitude of the decline. Put into perspective since peaking in December of last year, bitcoin has lost more than 80% of its value. Unfortunately for the millennials, they are the latest to be schooled by the markets and their early retirement dreams put on hold. It happens to everyone at some point which is being able to recognize irrational human behavior (parabolic arcs), confirmed by repeating patterns, helps to keep knowledgeable investors out of big trouble.

At some point BC will find a bottom and will be something worthy of your investment consideration. Until then, be happy you weren’t a part of the delusional crowd falling for the “hype” and “story” as they always precede parabolic arcs.   

August 2018 Charts on the Move Video

August was a barn-burner for stocks, specifically US stocks. The Nasdaq popped almost 6% and the rest of US stocks moved higher while most of the rest of the world equities fell.  Its a great time to be an investor in the current US market strength. As the pro's and big money come back from summer vacation will September follow August's lead and continue higher or will it offer something more challenging?  While we wait for this question to unfold, have a look at this months Charts on the Move video at the link below.....

https://youtu.be/6gf-MD3llM4

 

 

July 2018 Charts on the Move Video

US stock markets are leading the rest of the world higher.  The intermediate term rally in the dollar has either reversed or put the case for over-weighting foreign investments on hold. I think we muddle through the summer/autumn months and then rally into year-end.  Anyone thinking the same? 

July's Charts on the Move video can be viewed at the link below

https://youtu.be/lmdfJ5p16es

 

 

June 2018 Charts on the Move Video

Yawwwwwwwn.   Sideways chop within the Jan -Feb consolidation range until we see a catalyst. I thought maybe trade war fears would be enough to break the trend but apparently not.  Bulls are still in charge.  I don't expect to see a resolution for months so until then, sit back, enjoy the summer and check out this month's Charts on the Move video at the link below  ...

https://youtu.be/FLo_AyzWVeA

 

Inversion

When economist talk about the “yield curve” they are really just referring to a plot of yield versus varying bond maturities. An inverted curve is when the difference between the yields of long term bonds (usually 10 year) rates to short (usually 2 year) is negative (short term yields are higher than long). This is a very closely watched benchmark by knowledgeable investors because we know every recession that has occurred in the US over the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, according to research from the San Francisco Fed. Curve inversions have correctly signaled all nine recessions since 1955 and had only one false positive, in the mid-1960s, when an inversion was followed by an economic slowdown but not an official recession, according to the Fed’s data. 

While the US yield curve is still positive (NOT inverted) the global curve just recently inverted for the first time since 2007 where its inversion lasted briefly (less than 6 months).  I have not seen any studies that show if global yield curve inversion has the same strong correlation to economic slowdowns (recessions) as it has in the US, so the implications of the crossover may or may not be of significance.   

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As a minimum though, it raises a warning flag for investors to take the portfolio off autopilot and have a plan. There is no question, a recession, if it were to ensue around the world would likely drag the US along. Economic slowdowns are rarely ever good for stock prices and when combined with us being in the latter stages of the 2009 economic recovery cycle while stock prices are at very extended valuations, next year looks like it could be shaping up to present challenges investors have not had to face in many years.