The Ides of August

We have now entered the longest economic expansion in history. Starting in June of 2009, this record-setting run has seen GDP grow a measly 25% total, far slower than all previous expansions. As is usually the case, the stock market sniffed out the end of the ’08-;09 recession early as they bottomed in March of 2009.

Interestingly, August is the only month of this record setting 10-year run that seen US stocks fall more often than they have risen. There is a plethora of reasons one can assign to why but since we usually don’t find out “why” until after the fact, it’s only the probabilities we need to pay attention to.

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Even though there is only a slightly negative bias, the seasonality stats are telling us better months are ahead but more importantly our patience and investment fortitude may be tested in the short term.