If longstanding seasonality patterns unfold as they have over the past 65 years we should expect 2015 to be another good hear for stocks because pre-election years are typically the strongest of the 4-year presidential cycle. That doesn’t mean it is going to be smooth sailing the whole way, though. I expect some bumpy times. Through the end of Feb 2015, the performance of the US equity market, as measured by the SP500, was slightly better than the seasonal average but performance to historical pre-election years lagged. The average return for the S&P 500 at the end of February during pre-election years is 5.1%, almost 3% greater than the 2015 year-to-date return. As you can see below, stock strength during pre-election years historically continues to climb into July where it flattens out after which the pre-arranged Wall Street bonus errr I mean Santa Claus rally routinely closes out the year.
