Economy

Dec 9, 2013

Most human activities have seasonal cycles. The stock market too, has seasonal cycles that have been powerful trends to follow over the long term. You have heard me mention the fact I believe the balance of the year and into at least the first month of next should be good based upon seasonal patterns. What I am going to do this week is provide you the basis for part of that view by looking back at the year-end strength normally seen in stock prices in December, known as “the Santa Claus Rally”. While it is not perfect here is a look at some of the SP500 Santa Claus rally statistics from the last 20 years.

80% (16 years) of the time December 31st ended higher than they started on December 1st

20 % (4 years) of the time December 31st ended lower than they started on December 1st

The 4 years in which the index ended lower looked like this

1996 – a 1.6% loss

2002 – a 6.1% loss

2005 -  a 0.08% loss

2007 – a 0.74% loss

No one knows for sure but there are many reasons why this year-end rally might happen. Some things that may contribute include 1) during the holidays people spend more money on gifts which boosts corporate earnings 2) year-end optimism 3) fund and institutional money managers do tax loss selling and restructuring of their portfolios for the New Year.

While it is not perfect the historical patterns suggest one should be fully invested in November positioned for a potential rally.  Even in the down years, the worst case scenario was a 6% loss. Even in two of the greatest bear markets, 2000-‘01 and 2008-’09 the markets took a pause from a severe downtrend to hammer out a positive return.

 

 

Oct. 14, 2013

As the “negotiations” on the debt ceiling continue in Washington, this week’s post comes from the Pew Research Center where they put together a really nice piece called “5 Facts You Should Know About the National Debt”. With the Republican-led House engaged in a stare-down with Senate Democrats and President Obama over raising the federal debt limit, it seems an opportune time to dig into the actual numbers describing the national debt, the debt limit and interest payments on the nation’s credit line:

As of Sept. 30 the federal government’s total debt stood at $16.74 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s monthly reckoning. Nearly all of it is subject to the statutory debt ceiling, which is currently set at a hair under $16.7 trillion; as a result, at the end of September there was just $25 million in unused debt capacity remaining.

The debt is about equal to gross domestic product (GDP), which was $16.661 trillion in the second quarter. (The government’s first read on GDP for the third quarter, which ended Sept. 30, isn’t due till the end of this month, but it likely will be delayed because of the federal shutdown.) Debt as a share of GDP has risen steeply since the 2008 financial crisis: Though U.S. government debt is perhaps the most widely held class of security in the world, as of the end of September 28.4% of the debt (about $4.76 trillion) was owed to another arm of the federal government itself. The single biggest creditor, in fact, are Social Security’s two trust funds, which together held $2.76 trillion in special non-traded Treasury securities (16.5% of the total debt). (Social Security revenues exceeded benefit payments for many years; the surplus was required by law to be invested in Treasuries.) The Federal Reserve banks collectively held nearly $2.1 trillion worth of Treasuries (12.4% of the total debt) as of last week.

In fiscal 2013, which ended Sept. 30, net interest payments on the debt totaled $222.75 billion, or 6.23% of all federal outlays. (The government paid out an estimated $420.6 billion in interest, but that included interest credited to Social Security and other government trust funds, as well as a relatively small amount of offsetting investment income.) By comparison, debt service was more than 15% of federal outlays in the mid-1990s; the share has fallen partly because lower rates have held down interest payments, but also because outlays have risen substantially: up 39.4% over the past decade. Largely due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to keep interest rates low, the U.S. government is paying historically low rates on its debt. In fiscal 2013, according to the Treasury Department, the average interest rate on the public debt was 2.43%. Though you might think such low rates would dissuade investors from buying U.S. government debt, demand has until recently remained strong. But the ongoing debt crisis may be changing that, especially for short-term securities.

BONUS FACT: Though many people may believe that “China owns our debt,” as of July (the latest month available) China’s Treasury holdings amounted to about $1.28 trillion, or 7.6% of the total debt. China is, however, the United States’ largest overseas creditor, ahead of Japan, which holds more than $1.1 trillion in Treasuries