Whither Now?

I have mentioned many times about pattern recognition and its ability to increase your success and investment returns. Below is the daily chart of the SP500 which you can see has formed a symmetrical triangle.  Triangles are one of the few patterns that (when recognized) don’t provide me an edge as I wrote about here. We do know because they are subject to reversals after their initial breakouts, it is best to wait for confirmation before making any investment decision. The other important thing to keep in mind is as price gets closer to the apex, a breakout is imminent and when it does it is usually swift and decisive whichever way it finally moves.

So, once again we are at another crossroad in the market and this one should be resolved very soon. The catalyst likely being our beloved Federal Reserve which meets this week where they are expected to update us on their ongoing financial engineering “experiment” to control the US economy.  This includes a decision on raising interest rates ... or not.

As investors there are times to be active and aggressive and others to be an observer. When triangles are present, I lean towards the latter. Regardless of whichever way we break from this pattern I do believe we still have a destiny with our prior 2014 lows. This will need to occur before we can move on to first break the 2040 overhead resistance and then on to all-time highs. In the mean time when intervention on the scale of what the Fed is capable of doing is always on the table, investors should not try and front-run them but rather patiently wait and then respond based upon the market's reaction to their announcement.

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Bully for You

With new death crosses seemingly occurring every day, one indicator the bulls are hoping plays out is sentiment. The Investors Intelligence report this week shows we have reached the lowest bullish reading since Oct 2008.

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As we know sentiment is a contrarian indicator and extreme readings have been good at identifying areas where the likelihood of a market reversal is high. Looking at bullish sentiment is only half the story though. To get the most accurate gauge on sentiment need to look at bearish sentiment too. As you would expect only when both are at extremes does a reversal become a high probability.

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Unfortunately for bulls, as you can see in the chart, bearish sentiment is currently just sitting in neutral and no where close to an extreme.  Until investors become a lot more bearish, it appears sentiment will not be much of a tailwind to higher prices.

Fill in the Blank

Throughout my 15+ year as an investment adviser I am consistently asked about “fill in the blank" with your favorite investing topic dejour.  As always, the person inquiring was watching or listening to a financial news media outlet where they were recommending investors “fill in the blank”. Inevitably when these times arise it takes everything I have not to come unglued (and sadly I must admit I have not been as successful as I wish). I become bothered not because they are asking but because they are being played, a pawn in the game and they don’t see it. Not being the most eloquent of communicators, I struggle with providing a polite response. If I only had a compelling, canned response I could help people see the error in their ways and hopefully save them some money. I recently read an article from Jason Zweig (one of the few financial media who I feel is worth listening to) that provides just that. I wanted to share some of it with you. If you can, print it out and tuck it away in your sock drawer and the next time you have the urge to turn on “fill in the blank”, pull it out and instead go do something more fun and productive such as “fill in the blank” as that will likely provide a more positive impact to your life.

If you want to learn more about Jason you can find it here or read the entire article here.

The emphasis added is mine

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I was once asked, at a journalism conference, how I defined my job. I said: My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times a year in such a way that neither my editors nor my readers will ever think I am repeating myself. That’s because good advice rarely changes, while markets change constantly. The temptation to pander is almost irresistible. And while people need good advice, what they want is advice that sounds good.

The advice that sounds the best in the short run is always the most dangerous in the long run. Everyone wants the secret, the key, the roadmap to the primrose path that leads to El Dorado: the magical low-risk, high-return investment that can double your money in no time. Everyone wants to chase the returns of whatever has been hottest and to shun whatever has gone cold. Most financial journalism, like most of Wall Street itself, is dedicated to a basic principle of marketing: When the ducks quack, feed ‘em.

In practice, for most of the media, that requires telling people to buy Internet stocks in 1999 and early 2000; explaining, in 2005 and 2006, how to “flip” houses; in 2008 and 2009, it meant telling people to dump their stocks and even to buy “leveraged inverse” exchange-traded funds that made explosively risky bets against stocks; and ever since 2008, it has meant touting bonds and the “safety trade” like high-dividend-paying stocks and so-called minimum-volatility stocks.

It’s no wonder that, as brilliant research by the psychologist Paul Andreassen showed many years ago, people who receive frequent news updates on their investments earn lower returns than those who get no news. It’s also no wonder that the media has ignored those findings. Not many people care to admit that they spend their careers being part of the problem instead of trying to be part of the solution.

My job, as I see it, is to learn from other people’s mistakes and from my own. Above all, it means trying to save people from themselves. As the founder of security analysis, Benjamin Graham, wrote in The Intelligent Investor in 1949: “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

One of the main reasons we are all our worst enemies as investors is that the financial universe is set up to deceive us.