Transports – At a Crossroad

When reviewing my regular review of the US sector charts, the transportation index jumped out at me. And not in a good way, let me show you why.  You can see in the chart below, a 15 month look-back, price has formed a requisite 5 point, large (blue) rising wedge pattern. These patterns are typically bearish in nature and warn of lower prices, once confirmed. You can also where I have circled the area (near touch #4 of the rising wedge) where price broke out to new, all-time highs, held for a week and then reversed course retracing back to the bottom uptrend support line (touch #5) of the rising wedge. To add to the concern is normal poor upcoming stock market seasonality combined with negative momentum divergence (momentum is making lower high at the time when price is making a higher high).     

I wanted to post this since it is at a major crossroad here and will likely resolve itself in the next week or two.  I find it more educational and a better learning tool to post these in real time rather and watch them develop than point them out in the rear view mirror.

The bottom line is that support is support and until it is broken, this setup is nothing more than a pullback within a longer term uptrend. Because of the importance of the transportation stocks, a breakdown tough would likely pull the rest of the market down with it. If price were to reach the pattern target it would be more than a 20% decline, something stocks have not experienced for many years (but are typically regular occurrences of bull markets).

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I hesitate to post bearish setups and try to keep my post more positive in nature as I have learned from feedback it freaks some investors out. I do it for those that want to look at possibilities as it then will not come as a surprise if it does occur. Forewarned is forearmed. It’s good to reiterate here before I close that I am speaking only in “possibilities” not foregone conclusions. The higher probability outcome is for price to consolidate and move higher without breaking down. That is what has happened every time since the 2009 bottom why should we expect anything different this time?   Either way it’s great to remember pullbacks whether it be 5% or 20%, create wonderful buying opportunities for the next leg up in bull markets.