Who'da Thunk?

As a follow on to what Mel posted yesterday regarding market performance after elections, I thought I would add a different cut at the data. From both sets of data it becomes crystal clear to see that the markets will definitely, for sure, without a doubt …. go up … or down. 

Very interesting data but I find nothing in it to provide an edge to make money. As we wait on the results that will determine the fate of the Western World (said with tongue firmly planted in cheek), I found the following article to be an incredibly interesting discovery, if true. Regardless of your position on global warming what they have be a solution to two problems 1) our ability to reduce CO2 (and therefore our effect on the environment), and 2) a virtually unlimited supply of energy.

 Copied from Popular Mechanics Magazine:

Scientists Accidentally Discover Efficient Process to Turn CO2 Into Ethanol

The process is cheap, efficient, and scalable, meaning it could soon be used to remove large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere.

"Scientists at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee have discovered a chemical reaction to turn CO2 into ethanol, potentially creating a new technology to help avert climate change. Their findings were published in the journal ChemistrySelect.

The researchers were attempting to find a series of chemical reactions that could turn CO2 into a useful fuel, when they realized the first step in their process managed to do it all by itself. The reaction turns CO2 into ethanol, which could in turn be used to power generators and vehicles.

The tech involves a new combination of copper and carbon arranged into nanospikes on a silicon surface. The nanotechnology allows the reactions to be very precise, with very few contaminants.

"By using common materials, but arranging them with nanotechnology, we figured out how to limit the side reactions and end up with the one thing that we want," said Adam Rondinone.

This process has several advantages when compared to other methods of converting CO2 into fuel. The reaction uses common materials like copper and carbon, and it converts the CO2 into ethanol, which is already widely used as a fuel.

Perhaps most importantly, it works at room temperature, which means that it can be started and stopped easily and with little energy cost. This means that this conversion process could be used as temporary energy storage during a lull in renewable energy generation, smoothing out fluctuations in a renewable energy grid.

"A process like this would allow you to consume extra electricity when it's available to make and store as ethanol," said Rondinone. "This could help to balance a grid supplied by intermittent renewable sources."

The researchers plan to further study this process and try and make it more efficient. If they're successful, we just might see large-scale carbon capture using this technique in the near future."

Electoral Overload

336 stocks are down more than 20% for the past month. Only 36 are up more than 20%

The SP500 made it nine sessions in a row of declines on Friday.  The first time in 36 years. But it is only down 3% over those 9 days, unlike the previous occasions which saw a drop of -7% on average. This shows relative strength..  In the past 86 years, there have been 22 occasions of 9 down days.   Six months later SP500 was up 74% of the time with an average return of +9%.  For 12 months, a rise of +14%. The average loss was -7%. These down streaks have historically been good buying opportunities, Will it be this time?

Sentiment says we are getting close to a bounce as the boat is over-crowded on one side.

Recent market gyrations are a byproduct of the uncertainty around the election. In two days it will be over and only then are we likely to see what hand Ms. Market is playing. Until then, it’s all noise.

Weak Coffee

Starbucks has had a wonderful run over the past 5 years, rising more than 200%. Over this time frame it, as you can see below, went through two major upward thrusts and (now) three consolidations. Each of the prior consolidations lasted about a year. The first one in 2012 was more had a more downward direction as it lost almost 30%. The second one which started at the end of 2013 was more of a sideways move as it lost just 17%. The good news for SBUX investors was that each consolidation resolved to the upside.

Fast forward to today and you can see the weakness in price and the fact price is stuck in another consolidation. Looking like the last sideways consolidation (at least so far) as it has muddled along for not quite a year and has lost 16%. RSI momentum in the upper pane shows this is the only consolidation that started off with a negative divergence warning. Also, price has formed lower highs with each thrust higher while the $52-$53 area has acted as significant support. Finally, the descending triangle pattern that has formed warns of continued weakness.  Those long SBUX need to be concerned that while the current level has held 4 times in the past, the more times price touches a level the higher the probability it will break through (in this case to the downside).

All in all, like so many stocks right now, SBUX is at a crossroad. A break above the descending triangle resistance line and we are likely off to the races and in for another big run higher. A break below (red) support with confirmation, a test of the ~$41 level, some 20%+ lower is the pattern's projected downside target.

Those already owning SBUX need to keep a close eye out for a breakdown below both (red) horizontal and blue rising support as that would provide a high probability we see weaker SBUX prices ahead.

Time for a Commercial Message

While the markets bide their time waiting for the Almighty powerful Oz of the banking world’s economic statement release this morning (11 am PST), I thought there is no better time than now for a teachable moment. You quite often hear me speak of reversion to the mean (rtm) being one of the most powerful forces in investing. As it turns out 2016 is a big mean-reversion year. Take a look at the performance of the 10 best performing S&P500 stocks from 2015 year-to-date. On average, those 10 stocks were up 72% in 2015. In 2016, their average return is lagging the S&P500 by being up 4.3%. One of them was acquired in September 2015, so I am showing only 9 for 2016.

Take a look at the 10 worst S&P500 performers of 2015. On average, they lost about 60% in 2015. Year-to-date, they are up 17%.

Like everything in investing, mean reversion doesn’t always work (I still have my shares of General Buggy Whip Co. that I was sure would eventually get back above $10). Nor do you know when the reversion will actually start so timing is always a challenge.  Regardless, great investors should keep good companies that are well managed and whose stock prices have punished on their radar. At some point in the future these types of rtm opportunities can have explosive growth and as such deserve a place in everyone’s portfolio.  

I can’t wait for 11:01 so the markets can return back to their regularly scheduled programming.

Leaving the Island

An Island Top, one of the most reliable patterns, occurs when a upward trending price "gaps" above a specific price range and then is confirmed when the price "gaps" down below to the original range. That “island” that is created can be made up from one day or a cluster of days (formed by several bars rather than one) which is a much more powerful signal. The island cluster would look something like this example:

With that in mind, below is the chart of the 20-year Treasury bond ETF, TLT. As you can see, TLT was in a confirmed uptrend and gapped up on June 27 and spent the next 58 trading days above the gap (encompassed within the red box). Last Friday, Sept 9, you can see price gapped below the box and through the up gap of June 27, creating an island.

Island tops have an historical success rate of 77% with an average decline from the successful formations of -21%. While nothing is guaranteed, this pattern's high probability outcome if validated with follow through in the next few days, the market’s concomitant rise in volatility and poor seasonality is a warning that bond holders are likely in for some near term pain