Another Chance?

My April 5th blog post highlighted the compelling investment opportunity that was setting up in the Portuguese stock market using the proxy PGAL. At the time of writing price was at prior resistance, just under the red horizontal line, R1 in the chart below. As you can see, after a brief post blog report consolidation, price jumped strongly through resistance on substantial volume and climbed higher to the next logical resistance zone, R2. Like what occurred when PGAL approached R1, hitting R2 caused it to repel backward and consolidate.

The consolidation allowed the bulls to reload and make another attempt at breaking through R2. With volume patterns mirroring the ideal combined with the shallowness of the pullback, the probability is we see PGAL bust right on through resistance and eventually tag the first target, T1 above. A gain of 30% from my April post.  If the momentum continues in earnest, T1 won’t be difficult to attain and T2 would be next on the radar and maybe (be careful as my cold medications may be effecting my objectivity J) even a retest of prior highs at $16.5.

For those that took the original signal, congratulations. Hang on as it looks like there is a lot more in store. For those that missed out, a confirmed breakout above R2 offers another compelling (not quite as compelling as R1 was obviously) profit opportunity. As always, before any investment opportunity is taken, a position management plan need be created and adhered to. The good news is that breakouts are as easy as they come. A break back below the original breakout level provides an ideal “get the heck out of dodge” sell signal.  Good luck! 

A Look at Real Estate

I received a request (thanks, Cheri) to give my view of the (securitized) Real Estate market. While I include it as a part of my weekly sector analysis top down look at the markets, I typically look to other areas for investment of risk capital. It’s not because I dislike it or have a bias but rather because almost all my clients live in California and have more than their fair share of real estate holdings when considering their homes. As such, adding more real estate into their portfolios (even though it may be a bit different --- commercial REITs vs residential) I don’t feel comfortable over-weighting a portfolio unless everything is perfectly aligned.  We are risk managers first and foremost.

Below is a 5 year chart of IYR (with no dividends reinvested so we can get an idea of movement of price appreciation). In the middle pane, the green bars are the weekly price movement of IYR. Over the past 5 years, the price, without dividends, is up around 20%. In the lower pane is the ratio of IYR to the SP500 stock index. Because the ratio is falling that tells us that real estate (using IYR as a proxy) has under-performed the broader market stock index, SP500.  It may be hard to tell from the chart, but the amount of under-performance has been more than 20% over this 5 year look-back.  And to insure I am comparing apples to apples I have it set up such that this ratio DOES take into account dividends for both holdings.

Finally, you will see behind the green bars (IYR price) in the middle pane I have included another plot of the 10 year bond yield with a purple dashed line. You can see the almost perfect inverse correlation that exists between bond yields and real estate. The relationship tells us that as interest rates rise the price of IYR falls.  And vice versa. Intuitively, hopefully this inverse relationship makes sense.

With the potential for higher interest rates in our future a real probability, if that were to occur one would expect real estate to struggle. When combined with real estate’s ongoing struggle against other risk assets options (ie. non-real estate global stocks) and my client’s existing exposure, I still find no compelling reason to commit risk investment capital to this part of the market. If and when the economy slows down and interest rates begin to reverse course or the FED changes direction, I will be more than happy to change my mind but until then, there are much better opportunities available for your investment dollar.

June 2017 Charts on the Move

With the first half in the books, where are we headed?

Let me know what you think. My current thoughts can be viewed in the video link below

https://youtu.be/jo5X7DBkJBE

The Smallest of the Small

The frontier markets are those countries/economies that are too small and unimportant to be considered even an emerging market. Their kind of like that weird sister you have but fail to mention when discussing your family to friends. Countries like Nigeria, Vietnam, Bahrain and even tiny Mauritius fall into the frontier market bucket. Investing in these markets is extremely difficult as access and liquidity (or lack thereof) are two major risks investors who stick to the “developed economies” don’t have to worry much about. 

Besides a limited number of mutual funds there are couple of ETF’s where investors can go to get exposure to the frontier markets, FRN is my favorite. As you can see in FRN’s chart below, it just recently broke out above an important, long-standing zone of resistance. Price is currently above a rising 200 day moving average, momentum is VERY overbought and in need of a rest and likely why price is currently in the process of back-testing the breakout zone. If it were to hold above it, the next upside target would be back at the prior $16 highs some 20% higher. And if the market really gets to rockin’ the prior 2011 highs could eventually be in view, an advance of almost 50%.

With any alternative investment we want to see its performance as compared to a benchmark before adding to a portfolio. In the second pane from the bottom is the ratio of FRN to the world stock index less US stocks while the bottom pane is the plot of FRN to the US SP500 index.  As you can see in both instances FRN has formed a rounded bottom and has formed a series of (slightly) higher highs and higher lows, an indication of a possible trend reversal.

Like the smallest of the small micro-cap stocks, investing in the frontier markets can be a wild ride but offers out-sized gains in addition to a lower correlation and beta to your typical stock index investment. As such, for those with a proper risk tolerance profile, the frontier markets should be considered for inclusion into a well-diversified portfolio. 

The End of Fruity Pebbles?

Ok, I have to be upfront.  This post is not about the end of Fruity Pebbles cereal but I had to come up with something to grab your attention with a title that read “Lower Prices for Post Holdings Stock” (the maker of Fruity Pebbles, Shredded Wheat, Raisin Bran, Honey Bunches of Oats, etc.)

As you can see in the chart of Post Holdings, POST, below its stock has risen some 190% (peak to trough) since its last major bottom in Oct. 2014. After first topping in July of last year it made another attempt to break that $88 level and failed creating a double top in April of this year. Since then, price has broken below a (now) falling 200 day moving average and just last week has pierced the (blue) multi-year uptrend support line.  All of these point to the likelihood for ongoing weakness into the summer months. $71 is an important area of support where POST is likely to find at least a temporary bottom and the chance for a reversal if I am correct about weaker prices ahead. As always, if we were to get a correction in the overall market, POST be in for a much bigger decline and the $55-$57 zone (T2) would be its next likely home as that is the double top pattern downside target.

One last point of disclosure … I have a (negative) thing for POST. It’s nothing against the company or products (well, I never did like their Smurfberry Crunch) but rather its stock. You see back in 2014 I did an almost perfect call in identifying the bottom of the 2014 decline and went long the stock.  What’s not to like about that you ask? I eventually got shaken out of the position on its first major pullback and ended up with a measly 30% return for my efforts, missing out on most of its 190% gains. My mentorstaught me to never invest with emotions so hopefully I have demonstrated overwhelming evidence that my current short entry is based upon technical reasoning and not a desire to get even.