Just Because

I'm Paranoid Doesn't Mean They're Not Out to Get Me

Gold bugs have a reason to be paranoid as precious metals (and the miners) have been one of most unloved investments from their 2011 top. Since that time, every little rally has brought them out in droves proclaiming the bottom is in only to be sent back with their heads in their hands and their pockets significantly lighter. While they are a resilient bunch, the 4+ years of continuous beatings have made them paranoid and rightfully so.

Based upon the technical signals I watch, we are ever so close to hosting a bear funeral party for precious metals. If/when that becomes the case it will provide the justification to increase our exposure from partial to full position. Until then I remain cautiously bullish but always skeptical Ms Market is out to steal my money. Always on the lookout for signals to abandon ship, along comes one of my favorite technicians, Tom Mclellan with his latest … a full frontal bucket of ice water to the head of gold bugs and those long PMs.

Read on   … Let’s hope his fishhook is wrong

Gold revealed an interesting bit of information this week when it formed what we call a “fishhook” structure.  Fishhooks are important because they can reveal the potential for a more powerful move.

For background on this signal, see this article in our Learning Center on “Fishhook Rules”. 

The basic point is that a fishhook forms in the chart of a Price Oscillator (and some other indicators) after a high value top, and then as the Price Oscillator is working its way back down toward neutral, it turns up again briefly and then turns back down again.  Fishhooks can also form in the other direction, after a deep bottom.

The best fishhooks form when the Price Oscillator is about halfway down to the zero line, although they can certainly form in other places.  The one we saw this week is just about ideal, although that still does not guarantee it is going “work” perfectly.  This business is not about getting guarantees, but a signal that reveals probabilities is a useful thing to watch for. 

It is important to also note that an upturn halfway down to zero is not necessarily a fishhook structure until it turns back down again.  If the Price Oscillator turns up and keeps rising, it is not a fishhook, it’s a real reversal. 

The reason why a fishhook is such an important structure is that it reveals a failure by the forces of reversal.  In gold’s case, the bulls tried to start a rally again, but then quit after only 4 days of upward price movement.  This shows us that they just did not have the ammunition to mount a meaningful rally when they had the opportunity, and so that means they probably don’t have the capacity to stop a further decline anytime soon. 

The stock market in 1987 showed us two of the most important lessons about fishhooks.  Here is what I mean:

The first point is that a fishhook represents potential for a powerful resumption of a trend.  But not all fishhooks work out that way.  The one which formed in May 1987 did not result in anything more than just a retest of the prior low.  But a nearly identical looking fishhook in early October 1987 brought a much bigger selloff, and showed the potential that a fishhook can represent.  

So the message to take away from this new fishhook structure in gold prices is that it tells us there is the strong potential for a big decline, something which the COT data have been calling for recently, as we have discussed each Friday in our Daily Edition.  

How Much Do You Spend on Taxes?

How bad is the tax burden in America? According to the Tax Foundation, people will spend more on state, municipal, and federal taxes than the annual financial burdens of food, clothing, and housing combined, according to its data.

The calculation is based on the date of Tax Freedom Day, the point at which Americans have gone enough days to pay their annual taxes, beginning from the first day of the year. This year, that date will be April 24. It is worth noting that U.S. tax payers are better off than those in several other countries.

The organization’s researchers explain:

·         This year, Tax Freedom Day falls on April 24, or 114 days into the year (excluding Leap Day).

·         Americans will pay $3.3 trillion in federal taxes and $1.6 trillion in state and local taxes, for a total bill of almost $5.0 trillion, or 31 percent of the nation’s income.

·         Tax Freedom Day is one day earlier than last year, due to slightly lower federal tax collections as a proportion of the economy.

·         Americans will collectively spend more on taxes in 2016 than they will on food, clothing, and housing combined.

·         If you include annual federal borrowing, which represents future taxes owed, Tax Freedom Day would occur 16 days later, on May 10.

·         Tax Freedom Day is a significant date for taxpayers and lawmakers because it represents how long Americans as a whole have to work in order to pay the nation’s tax burden.

Just for the Health of It

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) was a wall superstar stock rising more than 1900% since its 2008 financial crisis bottom. The stock peaked in August of last year stopping shy of $760/share. That same month, both a salmonella and norovirus outbreak occurred. In October and November E-coli contamination was reported as was another norovirus outbreak.  Needless to say, this has turned both customers and investors away in droves. The stock fell almost 48% from peak to trough, bottoming in January at $400. Since then it rallied 35% up to $540/share, topping in March. Was the bottom put in and this stock is presenting us a great investment opportunity? Lets take a look at the chart and see what it is telling us.

In the top pane we can see that RSI momentum has fallen from the bullish to bearish zone, is languishing below its midline and just reversed course, now pointing down.  Since peaking, price has formed a very nice bear flag pattern which just this week broke to the downside projecting to further lower prices ahead.  Price remains below a downward pointing 200 day moving average. Notice how the Jan-Mar rally was done on lower volume (bottom pane) which warns of it being just a counter-trend rally rather than a reversal. All the signs on the longer term chart are pointing to more downside, one target being the 2012, $240 lows. Ouch! 

When a longer term chart is providing a compelling story I look to the shorter term charts confirm and then pinpoint my entry.  In the daily chart below you can see that flag pattern has now morphed into a head and shoulders pattern. Of course, some of you will be thinking head and shoulders are reversal patterns that mark the end of uptrends and this stock is clearly not in an uptrend. You would be correct but head and shoulders are found not just in uptrends and while not quite as compelling in the middle of a move, are important confirmations to the longer time frames.

Friday’s price closed below the neckline, providing perhaps an excellent entry signal for those whose risk tolerance includes shorting stocks. The risk reward ratio for this opportunity is well beyond the 1:3 target I favor.

To make me feel better about this trade I want to see volume pick up as it breaks January’s $400 low otherwise I will remain concerned this is a potential false breakdown. A spike in volume could start a waterfall event putting a stake in the hearts of those remaining bulls. A word of caution … as with any news driven event, a similar news event could cause it to reverse course just as swiftly as it turned down. As such it is imperative investors have a game plan to protect them from this possibility.

Make Sure You Have a Chair When the Music Stops

A very interesting read in the Bloomberg article below. Clearly this market is being driven by a different mechanism than those of the past and investors need to have a plan when corporate buybacks begin to slow.

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Buybacks at $46 Billion a Month Dwarf Everything in U.S. Market

The biggest source of fresh cash in American equities isn’t speculators or exchange-traded funds -- it’s companies buying their own stock, by a 6-to-1 margin.

Chief executive officers, who just announced the biggest round of monthly repurchases ever, executed about $550 billion of buybacks last year, according to data compiled by S&P Dow Jones Indices. That compares with a net $85 billion of deposits by customers of mutual and exchange-traded funds, the biggest gap since 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg and Investment Company Institute show.

If you sell a share of stock in the U.S. market, there’s a fair chance the buyer is the company that issued it -- and it’s buyers who’ve been on the right side of the trade since 2009. Buybacks are helping prop up a bull market that is entering its seventh year just as investors bail out and head back to bonds.

“Buybacks have come up in every meeting with clients and always have, because of the observation that the largest buyers of stocks have been companies themselves,” Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG LLC in New York, said by phone. “For the last few years, that’s been the right call.”

Repurchases by U.S. companies averaged $46.1 billion a month in 2014, compared with $7.1 billion in ETF and fund inflows. Investors have pulled more than $10 billion out of equity funds in January and February and sent $38 billion to bonds -- even as companies announced $132.7 billion more in buybacks. February’s total of $104.3 billion was the highest on record, according to TrimTabs Investment Research.

Buyback Index

Companies with the most buybacks are beating the market. The S&P 500 is up 1.6 percent on the year after falling from a record on Monday to 2,092.21 as of 11 a.m. in New York. The S&P 500 Buyback Index, which contains the 100 companies with the highest repurchase ratio, has climbed 4 percent this year.

“It’s amazing that people are still sitting on the sideline getting zero-something percent returns,” Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a phone interview. “Usually when you get where everyone says we’re in a bull market you see big money coming out of lifeboats and chasing yield, yet we haven’t seen the mass money come in.”

The reluctance of investors to pile into equities has left corporate America the larger source of cash throughout the bull market. Buybacks exceeded inflows by $468 billion last year when the S&P 500 climbed 11 percent and $318 billion more in 2013, when the gauge had its biggest advance since 1997.

Companies in the S&P 500 have spent more than $2 trillion on their own stock since 2009, underpinning an equity rally in which the index has more than tripled. They were on pace to spend a sum equal to 95 percent of their earnings on repurchases and dividends in 2014, data compiled in October showed.

Buyback Incentives

Not everyone is convinced buybacks are good. They’re used to boost per-share earnings in a way that enhances the pay of chief executives, according to William Lazonick, a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Lowell.

“Companies use a phony ideology saying if you maximize your shareholder value you somehow increase the efficiency of the economy,” Lazonick said in a phone interview. “But the only justification for doing it that holds water is that executives get a lot of their income from buybacks.”

Home Depot Inc., Comcast Corp. and TJX Cos. were among 123 companies that disclosed repurchases in February. The increased buybacks came as plunging oil and a strengthening dollar threaten to stall five years of earnings expansions.

Profits from S&P 500 members will decline at least 3.2 percent this quarter and next, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. For the full year, growth will be 2.3 percent, down from 5 percent in 2014.

Profit Contractions

Buybacks will boost per-share earnings, with the potential of helping avoid the first back-to-back profit contractions since 2009, according to Yardeni Research Inc.

“In the last earnings season, the strength of the dollar clearly had a negative impact on earnings guidance by a lot of companies,” Dan Miller, who helps oversee $23 billion as director of equities at GW&K Investment Management, said by phone. “In some cases, the announcement of buybacks was perhaps meant to soften the blow a little bit. It shows the management is committed to their own stock.”

Switching Positions

Corporations and investors have switched positions as the bigger buyer of stocks. Inflows from equity funds exceeded corporate buybacks every year in the late 1990s, contributing a total of $640 billion over the three years through 2000. That compared with $418 billion from share repurchases.

Companies have since taken the lead, with buybacks setting a record $589 billion in 2007. Last year, corporations beat all other groups as the biggest source of fresh cash to the stock market, according to a January report by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which tracks money flows from pension funds, foreign investors and ETFs.

The S&P 500 will increase about 7 percent to 2,238 by the end of 2015, according to the average of 21 equity strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed above 5,000 for the first time in 15 years on Monday and is within 2 percent of a record.

S&P 500 companies hold $1.75 trillion in cash and marketable securities, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“These companies do this because they can,” Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $2 billion, said in a phone interview. “So many have tremendous amounts of cash historically and the investment rates on short-term cash are not too attractive. It’s good for the company and good for stockholders.”

March's Charts on the Move Video

With the market reaching its expected target out of the divergent low "W" bottom, active investors should be sharpening their pencil and refining their plan for a consolidation or worst case test of February's lows.  Consolidations eventually lead to strong moves.  My latest video, view-able at the link below, outlines which way i think we go.  Let me know what you think.

https://youtu.be/DzpnGy5KyuM