I’m Baaaack

The Value Line Arithmetic US stock index closed the week at all-time highs, weathering the Jan-Feb double digit correction, reflecting the strength and resiliency of this bull market.

The SP500 index, while not quite as strong as the Value Line, sits just under its January high. Why the difference? The Value Line Arithmetic Composite Index represents a larger slice of the US market as it holds almost 1700 stocks vs 500 for the SP500. Most of the difference is smaller cap stocks which have recently outperformed. Additionally, each company’s shares are held in in equal amounts (equal weighted) rather than being cap weighted. Being the truer measure of the US stock market, the good news is the Value Line index is showing relative strength and broad breadth which reflect the internals of a very healthy stock market.

Mo

There are a number of compelling academic studies including the Jegadeesh and Titman report published in the Journal of Finance which showed a portfolio of momentum stocks outperforms the broad-based SP500 index.  Other studies demonstrate it’s not required to put your entire portfolio into momentum stocks if you want outperformance. Just having portfolio exposure works too.

One of my go-to vehicles if I want to spread my risk across many momentum stocks is MTUM, the Ishares ETF. The chart below is a 5 year look at the ETF. In the upper pane is RSI which was massively overbought but after the recent double digit pullback, has been reset, is above 50 and rising. In the middle pane is price which is above both its blue uptrend line and the rising 200 day moving average. I would be remiss if didn’t mention, it is within 9 cents of breaking out to new, all-time highs.  

And if you are wondering how it has performed, the bottom pane is the ratio of MTUM against the SP500 index.  When looking at ratios remember a rising line says the ETF is outperforming the US stock index. Pretty easy to see this momentum play does very well during uptrends, but loses more in downtrends so keep that in mind when investing. Over the last 5 years, MTUM has outperformed the index by more than 35%, a 6% annualized rate of return greater than the benchmark.

May 2018 Charts on the Move Video

The US stock markets continue to consolidate and digest its huge 2017 year run-up and subsequent double digit correction. The lone exception being small cap stocks as they have moved on to all-time highs. Will the rest of the market follow suit?  The benefit of the doubt has to be given to the prior underlying trend but I don't think the answer will be resolved any time soon. Until then, check out this month's Charts on the Move video at the link below  ...

https://youtu.be/XQLqeDGpNCA

Mmm, Mmm, Not so Good

Consumer staples stocks have been the worst performing sector this year (-12%), and Campbell’s Soup stock (CPB) has done nothing to help. Since forming negative divergence and peaking in July of 2016, the stock went on to fall more than 22%, bottoming in October later that year. From that point it went on to rally, albeit a weak one eventually running out of gas in January of 2017, formed a lower high and an ominous rounded topping pattern. Top callers should memorize the look as it is what tops normally look like. From that point it has been downhill as the sellers have been in control pushing its price down more than 45%.

Fast forward to the present and notice how in the weekly chart of CPB below, the most recent low which formed two weeks ago, was done on extremely high volume as shown in the bottom  pane (exhaustion selling?) and stopped right at a prior bottom (support). Notice also how momentum is now oversold and showing positive divergence.  Exactly the opposite of what occurred at the top back in 2016. If one had a very long term investment horizon, they could consider dollar cost averaging into the stock. Typically, when a stock gets decimated like CPB has (think Chipotle, CMG) it can take 12-18 months before it’s safe to enter as a buyer. Why? At that point all the sellers have left the building leaving only buyers and as such the stock can only go one direction, up. During that unwind in sellers, prices typically chop around viciously and will test your patience if you buy early. Forewarned is forearmed.  In the meantime while you wait though, you will be paid fairly well to hold the stock as its dividend yield is now above 4%. I am not a top or bottom caller and as such this interest in CPB is about the small downside risk as compared to the upside potential.

Cisco Bulls on Notice

One of old techs beloved companies, Cisco, has been on an 8-month tear. But its recent earnings announcement, while not bad, was not well received by investors and The Street. Price gapped down more than 4% the day after the call and has been consolidating sideways since. As you can see in its daily chart below, price sits right on a confluence of support, including both horizontal and its rising uptrend line which, just coincidentally, is the bottom of the (blue) bearish rising wedge. On a longer-term time-frame, price is well above its rising 200 day moving average telling me any short-term concerns are, well probably just that, short term. But risk is clearly elevated right here so CSCO bulls have a decision to make if support does not hold.

If price were to break support and hold below, I have identified likely downside targets on the chart as T1 and T2. CSCO shareholders have to be open to the potential for further downside as price sits below both its declining 10 and 50 day moving average, telling us in the short term, the sellers are in control. This is made obvious by perusing the lower volume pane where the big volume is dominated by the red (selling) bars. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the slight bearish RSI momentum divergence and the head and shoulders top pattern which adds further caution to the stock continuing its move higher.

If the buyers can hold above the current support zone, it is likely we will see CSCO go on to make new, all-time highs. A break below and move to one of the lower targets would likely signal the (short term) end of its recent bull run and a much longer-term sideways consolidation, something most traders would prefer to avoid.