$8 Trillion

Global bond yielding less than zero (yes, that means lenders are paying the Government to let them hold their paper) now exceed 8 Trillion dollars. In total, there are 18 countries with negative bond yields ... in the 10th year of one of the largest global economic expansions no less.

Central banks only tool left in their toolbox in an attempt to counter slow or negative growth is to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates. At some point all that want to borrow have done so and keeping rates so low harm only those who require bond income (retirees). With this going on since the 2008-09 crash and not having the desired effect one has to wonder why continue and then immediately brings to mind this quote

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results – Albert Einstein

You need to look no further than the chart above to the reason why I am a firm believer Europe is winning the race …… to the bottom and the next economic crisis will begin from that region of the world.

My Favorite

Back about a month ago I wrote this blog post about the developing setup in bitcoin. At the time it had changed character from a steep downtrend to a long extended, rectangular base. This type of price movement reflects the waning of selling pressure and an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. All that is needed for this to be a tradeable investment opportunity is for buyers to begin to step in and take control. Control is borne out by higher prices and confirmed with volume during the break out to the upside out of the rectangle. That is exactly what eventually happened in bitcoin as you can see in the chart below

Rectangles are my favorite pattern because they are, in my experience, the most reliable and profitable patterns to invest from. Because they are so well defined, it makes the management easy and their upside targets very clear. In the case of bitcoin, its upside target was met and exceeded yesterday … a very nice 35% in 5 short days. Congrats to those that followed along and it is time to seriously consider locking in profits for some or all of your position if you have not already done so.

End of Cycle - On the Horizon?

Late in market cycles brings about peaks in animal spirits. Investors are confident and have long forgotten about the previous major market decline. Caution and discipline are an afterthought as they risk their investment capital in places they normally would not. This is normal human behavior. As an aside, investors do just the opposite right after that major market decline. None of this should be no surprise, it is how we are wired.

The chart below shows the number of companies that went public last year but don’t make money came in at 81%, a new, all-time high. Companies don’t have to make money, look at Amazon how many years they went before making a dime. But those companies are the exception, and like hen’s teeth, very rare. The other thing to note is that the last time it was this high was … wait for it … 1999-2000, the top of the dot com bubble. Remember those times when any company with just a business plan and no earnings went public?  Most of them eventually followed the fate of the dodo, never to be seen again. Remember those times? Oh, the naiveite of investors back then, right? It’s so easy when looking backwards.  

 While it’s not 1999 and things are different (they are always different), this time the top culprit was biotech companies. This is not a surprise considering their business model and upfront need for research and product development funding. Second place, were technology companies, another set in the “not a surprise” bucket. Interestingly 'all other companies' came in at a record high. 57% of “the rest” don’t make money. 

Add this to a number of signs that are popping up we are late in this business/market cycle. All cycles eventually end. Unfortunately, we won’t know it has ended until we can see it in the rear view mirror. When you add that this to the fact the current cycle will likely go on for longer than we all expect there is nothing to do for now other than not lose sight of the past.  Oh yah, and have plan

 Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it - George Santayana (1905)

Q1 2019 Charts on the Move Video

Impressive moves from Christmas eve lows have the worlds stock markets very extended.. Typcially, prior highs act as formidable resistance, will they again? Or, will this be the mother of all rallies that ignore those levels and slice right through? Something to ponder as you listen to my most recent charts on the move video.

https://youtu.be/jZ_m4tYgOAk

Flip a Coin

Below is great support for why investors should ignore predictions (especially) and follow only price..

There have been 469 recessions all around the world since 1988. The IMF economists (arguably the best in the world) were only able to see 17 of them coming the year before. Their accuracy, of course, gets better the closer they are to the actual recession. But they completely missed 159 (34%). I don’t need to say it but you are better off flipping a coin than listening to predictions about the future. To read the entire article ….

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-28/economists-are-actually-terrible-at-forecasting-recessions …